← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +4% |
| Huesca win | 22% | 24% | 4.43 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 13' | 🟨 | Serdar Gürler · Huesca |
| 27' | 🟨 | Rúben Semedo · Huesca |
| 28' | ⚽ | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 189.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1575.72 | 1529.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.28 | -32.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |