← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 42% | 43% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Eibar win | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 11' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 15' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 20' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 34' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Eibar |
| 40' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 41' | 🟨 | Papakouli Diop · Eibar |
| 42' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Asier Riesgo · Eibar |
| 45' | ⚽ | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 59' | 🟨 | Anaitz Arbilla · Eibar |
| 61' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Eibar |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 127.00 | 1193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1550.98 | 1557.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.94 | 2.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.71 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.57 | — |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |