← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 42% | 52% | 2.31 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.26 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 28% | 22% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Getafe CF |
| 33' | ⚽ | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 82' | 🟨 | Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 153.00 | 760.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1597.71 | 1612.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.71 | 19.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | -1.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.56 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |