← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.34 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 13% | 16% | 7.32 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Duje Čop · Valladolid |
| 45' | 🟨 | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 53' | ⚽ | Leonardo Suárez · Valladolid |
| 60' | 🟨 | Santi Cazorla · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Kiko Olivas · Valladolid |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nacho Martinez · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 394.00 | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1639.44 | 1561.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.16 | -0.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.44 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |