← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 41% | 33% | 2.39 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 30% | 36% | 3.21 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 604.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1547.26 | 1695.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.04 | 19.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.83 |
| league points | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 25.95 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |