← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 47% | 46% | 2.07 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.69 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Levante UD |
| 47' | ⚽ | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 50' | ⚽ | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Levante UD |
| 54' | 🟥 | Nikola Vukčević · Levante UD |
| 56' | ⚽ | Nacho Martinez · Valladolid |
| 74' | 🟨 | Antoñito · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 179.00 | 210.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1553.78 | 1549.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.58 | -14.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |