← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Sep 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 35% | 38% | 2.81 | value: +8% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 33% | 22% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 40% | 3.03 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Amath Ndiaye · Getafe CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jony · Deportivo Alavés |
| 82' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Darko Brašanac · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonathan Calleri · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 300.00 | 756.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1598.32 | 1611.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.28 | 13.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 65.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |