← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 88% | 76% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 13% | 11.76 | value: +52% |
| Girona win | 4% | 11% | 23.38 | value: +148% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · FC Barcelona |
| 15' | 🟨 | Arthur · FC Barcelona |
| 16' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 19' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 35' | 🟥 | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Girona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 51' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 61' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 63' | ⚽ | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
| 68' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
| 69' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days | 479.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1940.06 | 1552.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.25 | 24.35 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.50 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.89 | 25.54 |
| state index | 1.97 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |