← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 76% | 70% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 25% | 6.39 | value: +58% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 9% | 5% | 11.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Marc Roca · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 41' | ⚽ | Marco Asensio · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Javi López · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 77' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 113.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1857.76 | 1596.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.80 | 27.75 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.84 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.72 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.97 | — |
| state index | 1.48 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.73 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |