← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 38% | 40% | 2.59 | value: +3% |
| Leganes win | 33% | 31% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Jonathan Silva · Leganes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jaume Costa · Villarreal CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Leganes |
| 65' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Rubén Pérez · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 107.00 | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1568.02 | 1701.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.89 | -9.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| league points | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.45 | 26.99 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |