← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 83% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 7.82 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 4% | 5% | 22.59 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Álvaro García · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 63' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 88' | 🟨 | Koke · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| 0.20 |
| coach days | 2459.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1809.15 | 1526.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.06 | -69.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 23.52 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |