← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 58% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
| Leganes win | 17% | 19% | 5.87 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 27' | ⚽ | Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Athletic Club |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jonathan Silva · Leganes |
| 41' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Leganes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 55' | 🟨 | Guido Carrillo · Leganes |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gerard Gumbau · Leganes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jonathan Silva · Leganes |
| 88' | 🟨 | Michael Santos · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 90' | ⚽ | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 111.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1554.17 | 1485.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.54 | -17.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |