← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 55% | 52% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.07 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 21% | 26% | 4.57 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | José Pozo · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
| 15' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 31' | ⚽ | André Silva · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | André Silva · Sevilla FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | André Silva · Sevilla FC |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 564.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1541.48 | 1652.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.17 | 51.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 1.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 2.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |