← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 74% | 79% | 1.31 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.40 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 11% | 6% | 8.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Raúl Navas · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 43' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 53' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 57' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 353.00 |
| 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1925.81 | 1599.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.10 | 14.50 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| league points | 90.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.20 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 1.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 25.15 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | 0.97 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |