← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 60% | 50% | 1.62 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 21% | 25% | 4.74 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.05 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 32' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 70' | ⚽ | Roger Martínez · Villarreal CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Roger Martínez · Villarreal CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Salem Al-Dawsari · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 260.00 |
| 869.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1633.70 | 1854.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.24 | -12.43 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 60.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.33 |
| state index | 0.78 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |