← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 74% | 66% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 21% | 6.09 | value: +29% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 10% | 12% | 9.47 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nicolás Pareja · Sevilla FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adrián Diéguez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 48.00 |
| 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1600.75 | 1569.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.00 | 27.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.90 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 55.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.49 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.61 | — |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |