← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 43% | 35% | 2.28 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 30% | 37% | 3.26 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
| 73' | 🟨 | Diego González · Málaga CF |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | — · Getafe CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Manuel Iturra · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days |
| 444.00 |
| 625.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1416.81 | 1590.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.65 | 22.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 59.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -2.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -1.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |