← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 40% | 29% | 2.41 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 34% | 44% | 2.90 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Joel Campbell · Real Betis Balompié |
| 23' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 23' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 23' | 🟥 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 28' | ⚽ | Dimitrios Siovas · Leganes |
| 64' | ⚽ | José Naranjo · Leganes |
| 76' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Real Betis Balompié |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nordin Amrabat · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 1813.00 | 383.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1473.88 | 1592.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.62 | -1.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 40.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |