← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 47% | 52% | 2.06 | value: +6% |
| Las Palmas win | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 13' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Girona |
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 21' | 🟨 | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 42' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 59' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days |
| 18.00 |
| 1613.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1370.09 | 1528.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.96 | -35.29 |
| eye test v1 | -1.22 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| league points | 22.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.58 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |