← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 69% | 74% | 1.40 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 18% | 15% | 5.40 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 13% | 11% | 7.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 20' | 🟨 | Thomas Vermaelen · FC Barcelona |
| 22' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 30' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 37' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 38' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 46' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 49' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Levante UD |
| 56' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 59' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | 🟨 | Coke · Levante UD |
| 64' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 88' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Denis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giampaolo Pazzini · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yerry Mina · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gerard Piqué · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days |
| 73.00 |
| 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1560.31 | 1943.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 52.08 | -2.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 43.00 | 90.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |