← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 70% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.87 | fair |
| Leganes win | 11% | 18% | 9.26 | value: +65% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 25' | ⚽ | Sergio Canales · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 26' | ⚽ | Diego Rico · Leganes |
| 53' | ⚽ | Miguel Ángel Guerrero · Leganes |
| 67' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 77' | 🟨 | Unai Bustinza · Leganes |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 85' | 🟨 | Diego Rico · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 11.00 |
| 1806.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1593.94 | 1479.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.84 | -18.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| league points | 46.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.15 | — |
| state index | 0.62 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |