← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 78% | 84% | 1.25 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.89 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 8% | 7% | 11.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 30' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 32' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 52' | ⚽ | Achraf Hakimi · Real Madrid CF |
| 74' | ⚽ (og) | Sergi Gómez · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 862.00 |
| 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1849.75 | 1567.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.53 | -21.84 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 72.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.94 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.75 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |