← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 49% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.30 | value: +11% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 21% | 26% | 4.71 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 100.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1539.51 | 1711.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.54 | 27.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| league points | 29.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.83 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |