← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 49% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.30 | value: +11% |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 21% | 26% | 4.71 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand