← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 69% | 74% | 1.42 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 19% | 17% | 5.10 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 12% | 8% | 8.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 33' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 37' | 🟨 | Vicente Gómez · Las Palmas |
| 42' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 90' | 🟨 | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1046.00 |
| 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.73 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1568.15 | 1373.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.03 | -24.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 47.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |