← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 41% | 36% | 2.36 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 32% | 35% | 3.01 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Marc Bartra · Real Betis Balompié |
| 17' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 20' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · Sevilla FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Simon Kjær · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Layún · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 376.00 |
| 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1594.54 | 1599.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.92 | 10.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 59.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.61 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.61 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |