← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Real Madrid CF win | 31% | 36% | 3.15 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Miguel Layún · Sevilla FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Guido Pizarro · Sevilla FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 84' | ⚽ (og) | Sergio Ramos · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 38.00 |
| 859.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 3.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1583.53 | 1865.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.99 | -2.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.83 | 1.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.62 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 51.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |