← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 43% | 42% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 28% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 34' | 🟨 | Adrián Diéguez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 61' | 🟨 | Diego González · Málaga CF |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ermedin Demirovic · Deportivo Alavés |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ibai Gómez · Deportivo Alavés |
| 79' | 🟨 | Roberto Rosales · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days |
| 431.00 |
| 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1440.93 | 1540.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.83 | 26.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |