← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alberto Undiano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 40% | 43% | 2.46 | value: +7% |
| Las Palmas win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Merveil Ndockyt · Getafe CF |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ángel Rodríguez · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 28 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| coach days |
| 5.00 |
| 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1379.75 | 1591.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.74 | 15.33 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 58.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -2.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | -1.54 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |