← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 56% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +3% |
| Real Madrid CF win | 23% | 21% | 4.18 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 12' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 14' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 31' | 🟨 | Raphaël Varane · Real Madrid CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sergio Ramos · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟥 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 72' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ivan Rakitić · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 339.00 | 856.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1943.03 | 1861.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.45 | -2.63 |
| eye test v1 | 1.51 | 1.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 86.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 61.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.53 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 20.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.78 | 1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 7.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 23.87 |
| state index | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |