← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
| Eibar win | 26% | 26% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 38' | ⚽ | Kike García · Eibar |
| 43' | 🟨 | David Timor · Girona |
| 55' | ⚽ | Aday Benítez · Girona |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dani García · Eibar |
| 62' | 🟨 | Papakouli Diop · Eibar |
| 66' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Eibar |
| 70' | 🟨 | Kike García · Eibar |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fabián Orellana · Eibar |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joan Jordán · Eibar |
| 82' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 89' | ⚽ | Takashi Inui · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 1599.00 | 1039.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1557.54 | 1547.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.90 | -19.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 48.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |