← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 45% | 50% | 2.16 | value: +8% |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 28% | 22% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Miguel Layún · Sevilla FC |
| 47' | ⚽ (pen) | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | David Zurutuza · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 70' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 33.00 | 3.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1574.43 | 1603.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.23 | 43.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| league points | 48.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 25.15 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |