← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 66% | 71% | 1.47 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.69 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 13% | 13% | 7.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Málaga CF |
| 24' | ⚽ | Riza Durmisi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 62' | 🟨 | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 73' | ⚽ | Fabián Ruiz · Real Betis Balompié |
| 75' | 🟨 | Luis Hernández · Málaga CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ignasi Miquel · Málaga CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samu García · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 364.00 | 425.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1604.43 | 1445.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 46.64 | 16.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.70 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 56.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.09 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |