← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 80% | 79% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 14% | 7.17 | fair |
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 7% | 7% | 14.90 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 87.00 | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1536.71 | 2039.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.83 | -7.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 83.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 24.74 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |