← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 57% | 56% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.01 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 19% | 19% | 5.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 34' | ⚽ | Pione Sisto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 35' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 38' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 56' | 🟨 | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 64' | 🟨 | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samu Castillejo · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 239.00 |
| 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1604.39 | 1586.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.33 | 16.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 51.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |