← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 51% | 61% | 1.90 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 22% | 19% | 4.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 15' | ⚽ (og) | Mikel San José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 24' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 26' | 🟨 | Asier Illarramendi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 36' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 54' | ⚽ (og) | Mikel San José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 59' | 🟨 | Diego Llorente · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 81' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Markel Susaeta · Athletic Club |
| 85' | 🟥 | Rubén Pardo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 86' | 🟨 | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 86' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 58.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1591.21 | 1576.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.61 | -13.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.72 |
| league points | 43.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.15 | — |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |