← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 67% | 83% | 1.46 | value: +21% ⚠ |
| Draw | 21% | 10% | 4.70 | fair |
| Leganes win | 12% | 8% | 7.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Real Madrid CF |
| 66' | ⚽ | Darko Brašanac · Leganes |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joseba Zaldúa · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days | 848.00 | 1792.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1859.90 | 1499.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.61 | -7.00 |
| eye test v1 | 2.30 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 68.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.07 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 27.43 | — |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |