← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 68% | 65% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.66 | value: +19% |
| Las Palmas win | 11% | 9% | 8.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Victor Sanchez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 25' | 🟨 | Dídac Vila · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 35' | 🟨 | Oghenekaro Etebo · Las Palmas |
| 76' | ⚽ | Gerard Moreno · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 79' | 🟨 | Vicente Gómez · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dani Castellano · Las Palmas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.13 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.14 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 27.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1539.34 | 1374.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.81 | -33.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 39.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.52 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 0.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.05 | -1.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |