← Primera Division 2017-18 · Mon, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 57% | 60% | 1.71 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 17% | 16% | 5.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ander Iturraspe · Athletic Club |
| 42' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 44' | ⚽ | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 45' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 53' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD |
| 88' | 🟨 | Unai Núñez · Athletic Club |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jason · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 357.00 |
| 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1597.71 | 1511.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.34 | 24.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 40.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |