← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Málaga CF win | 22% | 23% | 4.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
| 26' | 🟨 | Maxime Lestienne · Málaga CF |
| 30' | 🟨 | Manuel Iturra · Málaga CF |
| 35' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Málaga CF |
| 43' | 🟨 | Sergio Canales · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 64' | 🟨 | Keko · Málaga CF |
| 68' | 🟨 | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 0 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days |
| 417.00 |
| 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1425.12 | 1611.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.65 | 42.34 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| league points | 17.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.15 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |