← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 40% | 45% | 2.42 | value: +8% |
| Las Palmas win | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Las Palmas | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Gran Canaria |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 142.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1482.35 | 1624.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.06 | 10.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 1.90 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 25.08 |
| state index | -1.14 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |