← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 44% | 47% | 2.23 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 24% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 27' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Eibar |
| 53' | 🟨 | Charles Días · Eibar |
| 58' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Eibar |
| 89' | 🟨 | David Lombán · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days |
| 1025.00 |
| 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1553.14 | 1583.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.18 | 6.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| league points | 43.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 64.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -2.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |