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Eibar 0–1 Getafe CF

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Eibar win44%47%2.23value: +5%
Draw32%31%3.00fair
Getafe CF win24%22%4.10fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF
27'🟨Paulo Oliveira · Eibar
53'🟨Charles Días · Eibar
58'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF
77'🟨Iván Alejo · Eibar
89'🟨David Lombán · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots7
2On target4
8Corners3
15Fouls16
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.630.63
cards avg (last 5)2.605.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIpurua Municipal Stadium
coach days
1025.00
597.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)4.60-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.803.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.062.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.11
dominance (last 5)0.580.51
elo1553.141583.15
elo momentum (last 5)-26.186.19
eye test v1-0.64-0.70
eye trend v10.03-0.48
first sub minute (last 10)56.1064.30
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.531.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.660.73
league points43.0045.00
league rank12.009.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0064.60
possession avg (last 5)57.2038.20
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.180.36
season ppg1.301.36
shot diff avg (last 5)4.200.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.808.60
skill v10.24-2.03
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.703.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
state index-0.270.16
sterile dominance v10.62-1.16
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20