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Leganes 0–0 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Primera Division 2017-18 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alfonso Alvarez Izquierdo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Leganes win40%41%2.42fair
Draw30%30%3.26fair
RC Deportivo La Coruña win30%29%3.27fair

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Emre Çolak · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨— · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots12
0On target3
9Corners4
12Fouls13
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.79
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
coach days1784.0078.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.18
corner diff avg (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMunicipal de Butarque
0.20
-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.807.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.007.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.942.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.11
dominance (last 5)0.560.47
elo1502.561438.70
elo momentum (last 5)8.0224.79
eye test v1-0.590.07
eye trend v10.260.73
first sub minute (last 10)62.5054.50
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.610.65
league points39.0027.00
league rank14.0018.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2078.20
possession avg (last 5)39.6043.60
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.170.31
season ppg1.180.82
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.2012.80
skill v1-1.15-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.00
state index-0.01-0.24
sterile dominance v1-1.13-0.74
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.320.34
threat rate (last 5)0.290.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60