← Primera Division 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 39% | 40% | 2.53 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 32% | 29% | 3.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.32 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Willian José · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 80' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days | 49.00 | 2331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1584.80 | 1845.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.70 | 2.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.83 |
| league points | 40.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 23.52 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |