← Primera Division 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 72% | 72% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.65 | fair |
| Las Palmas win | 10% | 13% | 9.40 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jonathan Calleri · Las Palmas |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nacho Gil · Las Palmas |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sergio León · Real Betis Balompié |
| 68' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 77' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 86' | 🟥 | Michel Macedo · Las Palmas |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Las Palmas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | ⚽ | Junior Firpo · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 1 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 353.00 |
| 139.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1594.11 | 1392.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 69.87 | -23.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.72 |
| league points | 52.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 0.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | 1.17 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |