← Primera Division 2017-18 · Thu, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 49% | 40% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.43 | value: +10% |
| Girona win | 23% | 28% | 4.27 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ | Aleix García · Girona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Bono · Girona |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Ely · Deportivo Alavés |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 89' | 🟨 | Pablo Maffeo · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manu García · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Guidetti · Deportivo Alavés |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Alcala · Girona |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Timor · Girona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days |
| 139.00 |
| 1583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1541.93 | 1563.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.05 | -33.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.43 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |