← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 60% | 67% | 1.64 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.79 | fair |
| Getafe CF win | 15% | 13% | 6.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Loïc Rémy · Getafe CF |
| 69' | ⚽ | Rodrigo · Valencia CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Álvaro Jiménez · Getafe CF |
| 70' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | José Luis Gayà · Valencia CF |
| 86' | 🟥 | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valencia CF | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| venue | Mestalla |
| coach days | 291.00 | 594.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1682.79 | 1568.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.66 | -23.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 65.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.36 | — |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |