← Primera Division 2017-18 · Wed, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 82% | 81% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 14% | 8.55 | value: +18% |
| Athletic Club win | 6% | 5% | 15.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 39' | 🟨 | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Vázquez · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ander Iturraspe · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Óscar de Marcos · Athletic Club |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Real Madrid CF |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 16 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 838.00 | 352.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1867.39 | 1590.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.68 | -10.40 |
| eye test v1 | 1.88 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| league points | 67.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.09 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.76 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.70 | — |
| state index | 1.50 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |