← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 62% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.01 | fair |
| Leganes win | 13% | 21% | 7.32 | value: +51% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pires · Leganes |
| 39' | 🟨 | Manu Trigueros · Villarreal CF |
| 42' | ⚽ | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 55' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 82' | ⚽ | Darko Brašanac · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days | 228.00 | 1781.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1685.15 | 1598.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.85 | 5.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| league points | 48.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.56 | 28.22 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |