← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Deportivo La Coruña win | 43% | 45% | 2.28 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Miguel Layún · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 24 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Deportivo La Coruña | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| coach days | 75.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Estadio de Riazor |
| 0.20 |
| 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1436.15 | 1586.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.12 | -40.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |