← Primera Division 2017-18 · Tue, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Fernandez Borbalan, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 48% | 64% | 2.04 | value: +31% ⚠ |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 27% | 15% | 3.60 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 64' | ⚽ | Paco Alcácer · FC Barcelona |
| 71' | 🟥 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 82' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jonny Otto · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 290.00 |
| 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1578.64 | 1947.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.44 | 1.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 1.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 43.00 | 82.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 65.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 2.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 2.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 26.52 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |